I’m starting to hear people refer to the current economic crisis as “The Great Recession”.  The label is certainly catchy, but the part that fascinates me is the obvious corollary it draws to the Great Depression.

Some historians claim that the Great Depression was one of the causes of organized crime gaining such a foothold in the US.  For example, this Introduction to the Mafia website says,

But a second development further institutionalized crime – the Great Depression.  Ethnic progression should have moved any of these groups out of the ghettoes but they were frozen there by the economic climate.  Ghetto youths, progressing beyond the usual mindless ghetto crime, saw no salvation save in crime.  They flocked to the new criminal syndicates and provided a glue that held the Jews and the Italians to their criminal organizations.

If it is true that the Depression helped organized crime take hold, what will be the result of the Recession?  I posit that electronic criminals will find the same environment that their ancestors did in the Depression – people desperate enough to put aside their morals and ethics so that they can make enough money to eat or pay their mortgage.

There has been evidence that electronic crime is going up.  The Wall Street Journal had an article entitled “Cyber-Scams on the Uptick in the Downturn“ which says

Experts and law-enforcement officials who track Internet crime say scams have intensified in the past six months, as fraudsters take advantage of economic confusion and anxiety to target both consumers and businesses.

It’s extremely likely that this trend will continue.  Just because the world economies are suffering, that doesn’t mean the bad guys are going to reduce their efforts.  In fact, this downturn will likely increase the opportunities for illicit means of making money.

The truth is, there was already organized crime on the internet.  It is very clear that there are entire organizations tasked with defrauding people online.  The question is: Will this economic crisis help these groups grow their businesses?  I don’t think anyone would argue that the current environment will only make these groups stronger.

And that’s a scary proposition.